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In almost all situations, we are making statements about populations using data collected from samples. For example, a factory producing packets of sweets believes that there are more than 200 sweets in each packet. To determine a reasonably accurate assessment, it is not necessary to examine every packet produced. Instead an unbiased random sample from this total population could be used. If this process of selecting a random sample was repeated a number of times, the means from each sample would be different. Different samples will contain different observations and so it is not surprising that the results will change. This is referred to as sampling error. If we were to generate many random samples, we might expect that most of the samples would have an average close to the actual mean. We might also expect that there would be a few samples with averages further away from the mean. In fact, the distribution of the mean values follows a normal distribution for sample sizes greater than 30. We will refer to this distribution as the sampling distribution, as shown in Figure 5.7. The sampling distribution is normally distributed because of the central limit theorem, which is discussed in the further readings section of the chapter. In fact, the Jan 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
It s easy to imagine them thinking This ll x him as they installed a new batch of high-security cabinets tted with the Mosler Safe Company s combination locks. This time Feynman couldn t come up with an instant solution. The locks required three numbers to be entered in sequence. There was nothing to pick, no way to hear the tumblers fall. But by experimenting with the locks, Feynman soon discovered that the combinations were less fearsome than they seemed. To enter the number 65, anything between 63 and 67 would do, reducing the possibilities on each turn of the dial to 20. This, reckoned Feynman, would make it possible to get the cabinet open with around four hours mechanical effort. But that was too much like hard work. It was a chance discovery that got Feynman past the locks. When a cabinet was open, he found that it was possible to read off the last two numbers of the combination. The lock bolt would twitch as he turned the dial past the crucial positions. Before long he could pin down the numbers by touch with his back to the cabinet, just glancing at the dial to note the result. At every possible opportunity he noted the second and third numbers of open cabinets. Then, when he needed to get past the lock, he only had to try the 20 possible rst numbers. The Mosler Safe Company was beaten. Once Feynman had a puzzle to solve, he would worry at it like a dog, coming at it from different angles, never letting up until it had given way. It was the same part of his character that made him such a great physicist. It was lucky Trader Psychology: Ever the Same and Perpetually Changing Time Frames, Trading Systems, and Personality Traits
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