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This is an average of slightly less than $253,600 a year ($1,268,000 divided by 5), or an average return on the initial $1,090,000 equity investment of about 23.3 percent, which, although not high for the risk involved, could be considered reasonable after income tax. However, as seen in 12, return on investment might not be the best criterion to use in evaluating an investment proposal. The net present value (NPV) and/or internal rate of return (IRR) methods discussed and illustrated in that chapter are frequently more valid measures for project evaluation. Also, the forecasts used were based on only one level of occupancy, set of room rates, and food and beverage prices. It is normal practice to prepare a flexible budget and determine estimated net income from a level of sales higher than expected (thus providing a higher return on investment), as well as a level of sales lower than expected. If a satisfactory return could not be anticipated, the project might be terminated at this point. Alternatively, a different financing arrangement might be attempted, using more or less leverage and/or different terms and interest rates. To do this manually may require considerable work, but spreadsheets can be easily programmed to handle changes in a number of variables, individually or at the same time, to produce new net income and cash flow figures based on the changes. If a plan were to be arranged that seemed to produce net income and cash flow figures that were, in the initial years acceptable, then the cash flow projections should be continued beyond the five-year period to extend them for the entire life of the project. Finally, the lifetime cash flow figures could then be evaluated, using the NPV or IRR investment analysis methods, before a final decision is made to proceed with the development.

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