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Render QR Code 2d barcode in .NET to February . . . . . . 184

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With his con dence in science and his certainty in the increasing importance of computer science and AI technologies to enhance human intelligence and ultimately step beyond that goal into the realm of machine intelligence, Kurzweil s ideas have proved to be always interesting and usually provocative. One of his controversial ideas is his willingness to consider the prospect of humans being able to live inde nitely. Whatever the level of controversy in his predictions, so far they have had the unnerving tendency to come true. According to Kurzweil and his Law of Accelerating Returns, we are experiencing an accelerating evolutionary growth in technology.5 And it is not just computation that is growing exponentially; for example, communications technology parameters such as bandwidth, speed, and price performance are also increasing at rates that amount to doubling every year. As another example, the price performance of DNA scanning for biological research as well as for forensic analysis is also doubling annually. Kurzweil noted: It took us 15 years to sequence HIV a huge project now we can sequence SARS in 31 days and we sequence other viruses in a week. 6 Kurzweil has assembled substantial data on technology advances and he has showed with his technology-acceleration curves that the longer we use a technology, the more we get out of it. In effect, the advances allow us to use less energy, space, and time to produce the same capacity for less cost. Furthermore, one of his most startling pronouncements is that the future of certain trends is readily predictable. In particular, progress in information technology has turned out to be readily discernible. Even though we may not know speci cally how those technology predictions will come about, we can project their magnitude, plan for them, and ignore them at our own peril. Accelerating rates of advancement are the key to his analysis as summarized in a 2006 conference on computing.7 He states that the paradigm shift rate is now doubling every decade, so the twenty- rst century will see 20,000 years of progress at today s rate. He went on to say, The well-known Moore s Law is only one example of many of this inherent acceleration. The size of the key features of technology is also shrinking, at a rate of about 4 per cent linear dimension per decade. Three-dimensional molecular computing will provide the hardware for human-level strong AI well before 2030. The more important software insights will be gained in part from the reverseengineering of the human brain, a process well under way. He has predicted that, by 2020, a $1000 computer will have the computing power of the human brain. Why is this happening, and where is it leading us Kurzweil notes that this change is part of an evolutionary process, where each new step in development
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Figure 19-1 shows a state diagram for a message-driven bean s life cycle.
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