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his answer in writing. He smiled and responded that he was a capitalist. I said, How much He said for $7,500 he would write a feasibility paper on the subject. I accepted the offer. Of course, for the idea to work, currency values would have to oat. Little did we know how quickly that would happen. A month later U.S. President Nixon closed the gold window and the Bretton Woods system of xed exchange rates was forever gone. The world of nance was never again the same. At the CME I moved quickly. Sensing that I needed a specialized market for instruments of nance, I organized a nancial division called the International Monetary Market the IMM. It was designed to trade only nancial instruments. It opened its doors on May 16, 1972. The rst instrument was currency futures. Of course, opening the doors on nancial futures is one thing. Getting the world to accept the idea was quite another. I quickly learned how skeptical the world was about the idea. How much the world distrusted futures especially in Chicago especially at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. As Mr. Donohue, the CME CEO, said this morning, We faced skepticism and, indeed, criticism. The idea was labeled unnecessary, dangerous, and tantamount to gambling. It took years of work, years of education, hundreds, maybe thousands, of speeches and lectures, a nearly Herculean effort by myself and many people at the CME. Of course, the support of Nobel laureate Milton Friedman and later Merton Miller and Myron Scholes was most helpful. Eventually, the idea took root, so much so that it was copied in every corner of the globe. From Moscow to Singapore, from Chicago to Shanghai, from London to Mumbai to manage modern nancial risks, the marketplace needed exchange-traded nancial futures and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. Their economic function to provide a mechanism to manage inherent business risks in a globalized world was universally accepted and developed not only on centralized world exchanges but in over-the-counter markets as well. As a consequence, capital markets have been strengthened, national productively has improved, and standards of living have grown. In 1986, Nobel laureate Merton Miller bestowed upon the IMM of the CME the greatest honor: He called the invention of nancial futures the greatest innovation in business of the past twenty years. Make no mistake about it! In our global market environment driven by constant and changing market risks, instantaneous information ows, and sophisticated technology futures markets and OTC derivatives are essential instruments of nance. And for emerging economies that represent the ocean of the future, they are indispensable tools in the development of free and ef cient capital markets. To learn how all of that happened, I guess you will have read Escape to the Futures. Thank you.
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concept was summarily rejected by the newly formed Securities and Exchange Commission. Japan was the rst country to formalize the futures exchange. To be exact, the house of a wealthy rice merchant named Yodoya, in Osaka, in the year of 1650 is recorded as being the rst stationary meeting place for merchants where they would gather to exchange and negotiate their rice tickets. These were, in fact, negotiable warehouse receipts representing either rice already grown and stored or rice to be produced for future delivery. Rumor has it, though, that this great invention was banished from the Rising Sun for the next 200 years because the Emperor of Japan got caught in a short squeeze. It was not until 1826 in England, and 1867 in the United States, that the traditional futures market was established. In the U.S., Chicago was the natural locale as it represented the great railroad center for products grown in the West to be moved to the population centers in the East. It proved to be a huge commercial success for the city. Carl Sandburg even wrote a poem about it. Trouble was, years later, when Chicago s alderman Paddy Bauler proclaimed that Chicago wasn t ready for reform, the Chicago exchanges took it as gospel. Forgive me if I dare to mention that throughout its formal history, traditional futures were based on agricultural products. It wasn t until 1972 when some wild-eyed mischief maker, without credentials, without permission from Arthur Levitt or even one New York banker, explained to a bunch of hog traders in Chicago that the Swiss franc was not some kind of foreign hot dog. The shock sent the traders into turmoil and resulted in a primordial nancial soup on the oor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Years later, their cousins euphemistically known as nancial engineers, but regarded in some circles as nancial equivalents of Osama bin Laden fed the concoction to their hungry computers and the rest is history. The age of derivatives sprang to life which today boasts of $90 trillion in outstanding contracts. Of course, somewhere along the way, Fisher Black and Myron Scholes showed up again and spoiled all the fun by explaining what we were doing and why. Let me say that there are experts knowledgeable in the eld of nance and astronomy who believe that, as a consequence, distant galaxies are moving more rapidly away from us. The point of this review is to show that, from their birth, the genetic code of futures markets made them both dynamic and resilient. While everything about them changed, while detractors accused them of everything from the Black Plague to the 1987 stock crash, and protagonists claimed that they were instrumental in lowering the cost of capital, raising the standard of living and, some even say, a sensible substitute for violent crime one thing remained constant: They provided liquid pools of buyers and sellers in the management of risk. Still, any comparison of futures exchanges in the
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TIM BERNERS-LEE AND THE SEMANTIC WEB We continue with the story of Tim Berners-Lee from 6 as both the originator of the Web and the leading force behind the effort to formulate the next major initiative, the development of the Semantic Web. Because of these two very important contributions, it is appropriate that his story be addressed twice. Berners-Lee and the W3C team are currently engaged in a major effort to develop, extend, and standardize the Web s markup languages and thereby design the next generation Web architecture, the Semantic Web. In his earlier landmark work to develop the World Wide Web, Berners-Lee intended that collaborations among individual researchers would be extended through computers. To extend this capability to include automatic processing of information, machines should become capable of analyzing all the data on the Web utilizing its content, links, and transactions. Under the vision of the Semantic Web, the day-to-day business transactions could be handled directly through machine-to-machine communications and data transfers. Intelligent agents could be deployed to perform many functions, assuming the Web is populated by data in machineunderstandable form. To get there from here will require a series of technical advances. It is important to realize that the dream of a Semantic Web and the conversion to machine-interpretable information handling will require a lot of new work. The Web is far from done. Today, the Web browser and desktop folders are separate. In the future, we might expect that the role and activities of computers and networks would
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Jones, 1983). Four meta-analyses have con rmed the hypothesis that eyewitnesses are more likely to identify correctly someone of their own race than another race, and are more likely to misidentify someone of another race than someone of their own race (Anthony, Cooper, and Mullen, 1992; Bothwell, Brigham and Malpass, 1989; Meissner and Brigham, 2001; Shapiro and Penrod, 1986). This effect is robust and consistent. According to Meissner and Brigham (2001), who based their calculations on 39 research papers involving 91 independent samples and nearly 5000 participants, there is a 56% greater chance of a mistaken identi cation in other-race than in samerace conditions. There is no reason to assume that this high error ratio is restricted to research studies and is not to be found in actual criminal cases. As mentioned earlier, DNA analysis is now available to facilitate the discovery of possible wrongful convictions. Of 77 cases involving mistaken identi cations, 35% of the cases involved white witnesses misidentifying black suspects, in contrast, only 28% of the cases involved whites misidentifying other whites. Note the proportionately greater percentage of misidenti cations which occurred across racial groups (Scheck, Neufeld and Dwyer, 2000). The signi cance of this difference in percentage misidenti cations may be better appreciated when it is recognized that most victimization occurs within race categories rather than across race-categories. That is, most white-victims are victimized by white perpetrators. Thus, proportionately more misidenti cations should occur when white victim-witnesses attempt to identify white suspects (Wells and Olson, 2001).
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