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Each activity in a network can be portrayed using the format of Figure 11.5. Less important sources can be combined to keep the story simple, six separate sources or source subsets being close to the upper limit of effective portrayal in this format. Relationships between activities can then be portrayed using the format of Figure 11.6. Like Figure 11.5, Figure 11.6 is based on a North Sea oil project case used earlier in several publications (Chapman, 1990). The format of Figure 11.5 is also extremely useful for building up other performance measures by components. In all cases a nested structure can be used, as illustrated in Example 11.3. The analysis illustrated in Example 11.3 was actually built top-down, rather than bottom-up. The kind of analysis illustrated by Example 11.3 can be undertaken in days or weeks, hours if really pressed, as part of a top-down uncertainty appreciation as discussed in 6 and can be used to drive the start of a more detailed bottom-up analysis.

This makes sense; since if it were not so, then participants i and i 0 could both be better off by exchanging some amounts of goods j and j 0 . Alternative proof We have said at the end of Section 5.4.5 that given any initial endowment ! there exists a p; x such . p; x/ is a Walrasian equilibrium. Suppose ! is a Pareto point N and let x D x. p; p> !/ D x. p; p > !/. Now for each i the bundle x i is preferred to bundle N !i at prices p. But this preferences cannot be strict for any i, else ! would not be a Pareto point. Thus for all i, !i is as just as good for participant i as x i , and so . p; !/ is a Walrasian equilibrium for initial endowments !. P P i Notice that, given any initial endowment ! such that i !i D N N N i ! , i.e. ! and ! contain the same total quantity of each good, we can support a Pareto ef cient ! as the Walrasian equilibrium if we are allowed to rst make a lump sum redistribution of the endowments. We can do this by redistributing the initial endowments ! to any b, such that N ! ! ! ! p> bi D p> !i for all i. Of course, this can be done trivially by taking b D !, but other b may be easier to achieve in practice. For example, we might nd it dif cult to redistribute a good called labour . If there is a good called money , then we can do everything by redistributing that good alone, i.e. by subsidy and taxation. We will see this in Section 5.5.1 when we suggest that to maximize social welfare there be a lump-sum transfer of money from the consumers to the supplier to cover his xed cost. Let us now return to the problem of social welfare maximization: X X u i .x i / ; subject to x ij ! j for all j (5.11) maximize

(4.84)

longer the rare and esoteric practice that it was in the 1980s when we began managing online communities. Thousands of Web sites have since provided chat rooms and message boards. Email among groups of people has become another common meeting place. Instant messaging has become the means through which isolated keyboardists maintain a sense of immediate connection with their online buddies. Meanwhile organizations after years of adopting expensive technologies to keep meticulous track of operational numbers and statistics have recognized that numeric information alone is not sufficient to guide them in today s fastchanging marketplace. Last year s sales figures don t tell them how to change production as new fads, technologies, and competitors suddenly crash into their markets. Millions of records of customer transactions don t inform them of their consumers thinking after an event like the terrorist attacks on September 11 or a calamitous news story about their industry. Numbers about past performance have fooled many enterprises into thinking they knew what the future would bring. The Net has speeded up both communication and change in attitudes, opinions, and habits. To anticipate and prepare for the future, organizations must learn more from their employees and from the people on whom they depend customers, partners, and constituents. Today we need dynamic knowledge current and constantly updated experience and thinking found only in the agile minds of living human beings and revealed most naturally and completely through human conversations. This book addresses the modern organization at a point in time when many trial applications for the Net have been abandoned in favor of its powerful role as a communication medium the purpose for which it was originally designed. We now have a significant percentage of consumers both inside and outside of the organization using the Net to connect and converse with others. Organizations are desperately seeking a competitive edge in a world defined by unexpected change, increasingly decentralized leadership and the instant interconnectivity of hundreds of millions. The consumer is far more informed than in the pre-Web days, and now expects to be able to communicate directly and honestly with the companies that make the products (s)he buys. We wrote this book now to teach organizations how to engage in the conversations that can make them integral parts of this new, expanding, and uncontrollable marketplace.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 171 Serrat 177 Sharpe 50, 113, 195, 227 Sheather 88 Shenton 211 Shleifer 47 Silverman 86, 88 Singh 144 Smith 88, 172 Solnik 89, 103, 104, 179 Sopher 158 Spanos 86, 208 Standard & Poor s 174 Starmer 127, 132, 135, 176 Statistical Reference Datasets (StRD) 216 Stewart 250 Stock 79 Stuart 85, 112 Stuetzle 153 Su 159 Summers 77 Sun 223 Tehranian 159 Tenorio 157 Thai Baht 171, 174 Thaler 156 The Financial Times 167 Theil 242 Thistle 142 Tibshirani 145 Tiao 239 Toronto Star 214 Torous 223 Transparency International 174 Trede 144, 145 Treynor 50, 114, 195 Tsay 199 Tsey 153 Tukey 220 Tversky 133, 134, 156 Tyco international 171, 250 UBS 249 Uhlenbeck 21 Ullah 50, 196, 199

The transformation rule Rnew leads to the matrix W (in which we can suppress the third line that induces non-solutions). t1 t2