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Note For more information on the Search Companion, see 17.
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the amount of permissible volatility. The computer determines the appropriate mix of assets that can achieve the desired risk and return based on history. One of the principles underlying CAPM is that few if any investors will be able to determine which investment assets will rise and fall at different times. Therefore, the best an investor can do is to determine the appropriate long-term mix of assets and hold that mix indefinitely. Most pension funds and other institutional investors use some form of CAPM. It also is used by many financial planners, brokers, and other investment advisers to construct portfolios for their clients. Investment advice from a web site sponsored by a broker or mutual fund likely will use an optimizer to determine the recommended portfolio. Despite its widespread use, there are some disadvantages to the longterm buy-and-hold strategy of CAPM that make it inappropriate for many retirees and pre-retirees. Investment risk under CAPM is defined as the standard deviation, or volatility, of investment returns. That means the risk of a portfolio or asset is considered to be the amount by which its price fluctuates over a period of time, usually annually. It doesn t matter if the fluctuation is upward or downward or how long each up or down trend lasts. For most investors, however, risk is something else. Risk ultimately is the possibility that the portfolio won t achieve the investor s goals, such as paying for retirement and leaving assets for heirs or charity. By this definition, an asset could have low volatility and still be very risky to an investor. Or an investment could have very high short-term volatility and still not carry much long-term risk of not meeting the investor s goals. An investor using CAPM is using a model that defines risk as something other than what the investor considers to be risk. Another disadvantage of CAPM, and one that the recent bear market highlighted, is that it focuses only on the very long term and only on one rate of return over that long period. This might be fine for a pension fund that essentially has an indefinite life. Most pension funds can withstand years or even decades when the portfolio s returns are below expectations. In time, the investment returns will return to the long-term average and the fund will meet its goals. Individual investors don t have the luxury of an infinite life. They should be concerned with returns over perhaps the next 10 years, not the last 80 years. Ten years of below-average returns which has happened every generation or so could be too much for the individual to overcome and could lead to a reduced standard of living. A related disadvantage is that historic returns often are used in the portfolio optimizer. CAPM assumes that the past pattern of investment returns will be the future pattern. We actually have verifiable, reliable investment returns for U.S. stocks only for a relatively short period of time. For other investments, we have even a smaller database of returns. Most statisticians would state that the amount of historic returns we have for our investments is not long enough to draw conclusions or to reliably forecast future returns. This is especially true for relatively new asset classes, such as
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The Search Companion is your best friend when it comes time to find a lost file or take inventory of files spread across multiple folders. To recap the high points: To search your entire hard drive (or all hard drives), click the Start button and choose Search. To search a specific folder and its subfolder, open the folder, and then click the Search button in Explorer s toolbar. Optionally, use the Search Companion s Look In option to search a specific disk drive or folder. To search for files based on their names, fill in the All or part of the filename option in the Search Companion. To search for files based on their extensions, enter *.ext into the All or part of the file name text box, where ext is the extension you re looking for. To search the contents of documents, or document properties, fill n the A word or phrase in the file text box in the Search Companion. Use the advanced options in the Search Companion to search for files based on date or size. To customize the Search Companion, click its Change preferences option.
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